IMF Releases October 2026 World Economic Outlook - Korea’s 2026 Growth Forecast: 3.3%! - Powered By Strong Semiconductor Demand! - Middle East Conflict - Trade Tensions - AI Technology - Despite the Middle East conflict and trade tensions, the global economy is doing better than expected because of the AI investment boom! ※ Assumes the Strait of Hormuz reopens in February 2027 and returns to normal operations by October 2027. Outlook for Major Advanced Economies - 2026: 2.1% (+0.4 %p), 2027: 1.8% [United States] - Growth holds at 2.3%, thanks to productivity gains and increased technology investment! [Euro Area] - Growth at 1.1%, weighed down by high oil prices and weaker consumer confidence. [Japan] - Growth at 0.7%, with government support cushioning high energy costs. (Government Support) Spotlight on Korea: What’s the Growth Outlook? - 2026: 3.3% — revised up by 0.7 %p 2027: 2.8% — revised up by 0.3 %p - Booming semiconductor demand outweighs the impact of the Middle East conflict! - Korea’s upward revision is far larger than those for the global economy (+0.1 %p) and advanced economies (+0.4 %p)! AI Momentum and Spillover Effects - Korea and Taiwan account for 62% of global trade in AI computing hardware! - The IMF also identifies Korea and Taiwan as key players in AI hardware trade! <62% of Global AI Computing Hardware Trade> Exporters and Manufacturing Hubs - This can generate spillover effects for commodity exporters and manufacturing hubs! Risks to the Outlook - Downside Risks · Prolonged tensions in the Middle East · Trade frictions driven by protectionism · Reduced private investment if AI expectations are not met - Upside Potential · Wider adoption of AI · Progress in trade negotiations · More diversified supply chains - The IMF urges caution over downside risks but also notes the potential for upside factors to come into play! The IMF’s Four Policy Recommendations and Key Takeaway - Fiscal Policy Provide temporary, targeted support for vulnerable groups. - Monetary Policy Prioritize price stability and pursue proactive monetary tightening. - Structural Reforms Ease regulatory burdens and improve labor mobility. - International Cooperation Promote multilateral financial support and mutually beneficial trade. - Let’s build a resilient economy that can weather any crisis!